Markov Chain [3D] | FractalystWhat exactly is a Markov Chain?
This indicator uses a Markov Chain model to analyze, quantify, and visualize the transitions between market regimes (Bull, Bear, Neutral) on your chart. It dynamically detects these regimes in real-time, calculates transition probabilities, and displays them as animated 3D spheres and arrows, giving traders intuitive insight into current and future market conditions.
How does a Markov Chain work, and how should I read this spheres-and-arrows diagram?
Think of three weather modes: Sunny, Rainy, Cloudy.
Each sphere is one mode. The loop on a sphere means “stay the same next step” (e.g., Sunny again tomorrow).
The arrows leaving a sphere show where things usually go next if they change (e.g., Sunny moving to Cloudy).
Some paths matter more than others. A more prominent loop means the current mode tends to persist. A more prominent outgoing arrow means a change to that destination is the usual next step.
Direction isn’t symmetric: moving Sunny→Cloudy can behave differently than Cloudy→Sunny.
Now relabel the spheres to markets: Bull, Bear, Neutral.
Spheres: market regimes (uptrend, downtrend, range).
Self‑loop: tendency for the current regime to continue on the next bar.
Arrows: the most common next regime if a switch happens.
How to read: Start at the sphere that matches current bar state. If the loop stands out, expect continuation. If one outgoing path stands out, that switch is the typical next step. Opposite directions can differ (Bear→Neutral doesn’t have to match Neutral→Bear).
What states and transitions are shown?
The three market states visualized are:
Bullish (Bull): Upward or strong-market regime.
Bearish (Bear): Downward or weak-market regime.
Neutral: Sideways or range-bound regime.
Bidirectional animated arrows and probability labels show how likely the market is to move from one regime to another (e.g., Bull → Bear or Neutral → Bull).
How does the regime detection system work?
You can use either built-in price returns (based on adaptive Z-score normalization) or supply three custom indicators (such as volume, oscillators, etc.).
Values are statistically normalized (Z-scored) over a configurable lookback period.
The normalized outputs are classified into Bull, Bear, or Neutral zones.
If using three indicators, their regime signals are averaged and smoothed for robustness.
How are transition probabilities calculated?
On every confirmed bar, the algorithm tracks the sequence of detected market states, then builds a rolling window of transitions.
The code maintains a transition count matrix for all regime pairs (e.g., Bull → Bear).
Transition probabilities are extracted for each possible state change using Laplace smoothing for numerical stability, and frequently updated in real-time.
What is unique about the visualization?
3D animated spheres represent each regime and change visually when active.
Animated, bidirectional arrows reveal transition probabilities and allow you to see both dominant and less likely regime flows.
Particles (moving dots) animate along the arrows, enhancing the perception of regime flow direction and speed.
All elements dynamically update with each new price bar, providing a live market map in an intuitive, engaging format.
Can I use custom indicators for regime classification?
Yes! Enable the "Custom Indicators" switch and select any three chart series as inputs. These will be normalized and combined (each with equal weight), broadening the regime classification beyond just price-based movement.
What does the “Lookback Period” control?
Lookback Period (default: 100) sets how much historical data builds the probability matrix. Shorter periods adapt faster to regime changes but may be noisier. Longer periods are more stable but slower to adapt.
How is this different from a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)?
It sets the window for both regime detection and probability calculations. Lower values make the system more reactive, but potentially noisier. Higher values smooth estimates and make the system more robust.
How is this Markov Chain different from a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)?
Markov Chain (as here): All market regimes (Bull, Bear, Neutral) are directly observable on the chart. The transition matrix is built from actual detected regimes, keeping the model simple and interpretable.
Hidden Markov Model: The actual regimes are unobservable ("hidden") and must be inferred from market output or indicator "emissions" using statistical learning algorithms. HMMs are more complex, can capture more subtle structure, but are harder to visualize and require additional machine learning steps for training.
A standard Markov Chain models transitions between observable states using a simple transition matrix, while a Hidden Markov Model assumes the true states are hidden (latent) and must be inferred from observable “emissions” like price or volume data. In practical terms, a Markov Chain is transparent and easier to implement and interpret; an HMM is more expressive but requires statistical inference to estimate hidden states from data.
Markov Chain: states are observable; you directly count or estimate transition probabilities between visible states. This makes it simpler, faster, and easier to validate and tune.
HMM: states are hidden; you only observe emissions generated by those latent states. Learning involves machine learning/statistical algorithms (commonly Baum–Welch/EM for training and Viterbi for decoding) to infer both the transition dynamics and the most likely hidden state sequence from data.
How does the indicator avoid “repainting” or look-ahead bias?
All regime changes and matrix updates happen only on confirmed (closed) bars, so no future data is leaked, ensuring reliable real-time operation.
Are there practical tuning tips?
Tune the Lookback Period for your asset/timeframe: shorter for fast markets, longer for stability.
Use custom indicators if your asset has unique regime drivers.
Watch for rapid changes in transition probabilities as early warning of a possible regime shift.
Who is this indicator for?
Quants and quantitative researchers exploring probabilistic market modeling, especially those interested in regime-switching dynamics and Markov models.
Programmers and system developers who need a probabilistic regime filter for systematic and algorithmic backtesting:
The Markov Chain indicator is ideally suited for programmatic integration via its bias output (1 = Bull, 0 = Neutral, -1 = Bear).
Although the visualization is engaging, the core output is designed for automated, rules-based workflows—not for discretionary/manual trading decisions.
Developers can connect the indicator’s output directly to their Pine Script logic (using input.source()), allowing rapid and robust backtesting of regime-based strategies.
It acts as a plug-and-play regime filter: simply plug the bias output into your entry/exit logic, and you have a scientifically robust, probabilistically-derived signal for filtering, timing, position sizing, or risk regimes.
The MC's output is intentionally "trinary" (1/0/-1), focusing on clear regime states for unambiguous decision-making in code. If you require nuanced, multi-probability or soft-label state vectors, consider expanding the indicator or stacking it with a probability-weighted logic layer in your scripting.
Because it avoids subjectivity, this approach is optimal for systematic quants, algo developers building backtested, repeatable strategies based on probabilistic regime analysis.
What's the mathematical foundation behind this?
The mathematical foundation behind this Markov Chain indicator—and probabilistic regime detection in finance—draws from two principal models: the (standard) Markov Chain and the Hidden Markov Model (HMM).
How to use this indicator programmatically?
The Markov Chain indicator automatically exports a bias value (+1 for Bullish, -1 for Bearish, 0 for Neutral) as a plot visible in the Data Window. This allows you to integrate its regime signal into your own scripts and strategies for backtesting, automation, or live trading.
Step-by-Step Integration with Pine Script (input.source)
Add the Markov Chain indicator to your chart.
This must be done first, since your custom script will "pull" the bias signal from the indicator's plot.
In your strategy, create an input using input.source()
Example:
//@version=5
strategy("MC Bias Strategy Example")
mcBias = input.source(close, "MC Bias Source")
After saving, go to your script’s settings. For the “MC Bias Source” input, select the plot/output of the Markov Chain indicator (typically its bias plot).
Use the bias in your trading logic
Example (long only on Bull, flat otherwise):
if mcBias == 1
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
else
strategy.close("Long")
For more advanced workflows, combine mcBias with additional filters or trailing stops.
How does this work behind-the-scenes?
TradingView’s input.source() lets you use any plot from another indicator as a real-time, “live” data feed in your own script (source).
The selected bias signal is available to your Pine code as a variable, enabling logical decisions based on regime (trend-following, mean-reversion, etc.).
This enables powerful strategy modularity : decouple regime detection from entry/exit logic, allowing fast experimentation without rewriting core signal code.
Integrating 45+ Indicators with Your Markov Chain — How & Why
The Enhanced Custom Indicators Export script exports a massive suite of over 45 technical indicators—ranging from classic momentum (RSI, MACD, Stochastic, etc.) to trend, volume, volatility, and oscillator tools—all pre-calculated, centered/scaled, and available as plots.
// Enhanced Custom Indicators Export - 45 Technical Indicators
// Comprehensive technical analysis suite for advanced market regime detection
//@version=6
indicator('Enhanced Custom Indicators Export | Fractalyst', shorttitle='Enhanced CI Export', overlay=false, scale=scale.right, max_labels_count=500, max_lines_count=500)
// |----- Input Parameters -----| //
momentum_group = "Momentum Indicators"
trend_group = "Trend Indicators"
volume_group = "Volume Indicators"
volatility_group = "Volatility Indicators"
oscillator_group = "Oscillator Indicators"
display_group = "Display Settings"
// Common lengths
length_14 = input.int(14, "Standard Length (14)", minval=1, maxval=100, group=momentum_group)
length_20 = input.int(20, "Medium Length (20)", minval=1, maxval=200, group=trend_group)
length_50 = input.int(50, "Long Length (50)", minval=1, maxval=200, group=trend_group)
// Display options
show_table = input.bool(true, "Show Values Table", group=display_group)
table_size = input.string("Small", "Table Size", options= , group=display_group)
// |----- MOMENTUM INDICATORS (15 indicators) -----| //
// 1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
rsi_14 = ta.rsi(close, length_14)
rsi_centered = rsi_14 - 50
// 2. Stochastic Oscillator
stoch_k = ta.stoch(close, high, low, length_14)
stoch_d = ta.sma(stoch_k, 3)
stoch_centered = stoch_k - 50
// 3. Williams %R
williams_r = ta.stoch(close, high, low, length_14) - 100
// 4. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
= ta.macd(close, 12, 26, 9)
// 5. Momentum (Rate of Change)
momentum = ta.mom(close, length_14)
momentum_pct = (momentum / close ) * 100
// 6. Rate of Change (ROC)
roc = ta.roc(close, length_14)
// 7. Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
cci = ta.cci(close, length_20)
// 8. Money Flow Index (MFI)
mfi = ta.mfi(close, length_14)
mfi_centered = mfi - 50
// 9. Awesome Oscillator (AO)
ao = ta.sma(hl2, 5) - ta.sma(hl2, 34)
// 10. Accelerator Oscillator (AC)
ac = ao - ta.sma(ao, 5)
// 11. Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO)
cmo = ta.cmo(close, length_14)
// 12. Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO)
dpo = close - ta.sma(close, length_20)
// 13. Price Oscillator (PPO)
ppo = ta.sma(close, 12) - ta.sma(close, 26)
ppo_pct = (ppo / ta.sma(close, 26)) * 100
// 14. TRIX
trix_ema1 = ta.ema(close, length_14)
trix_ema2 = ta.ema(trix_ema1, length_14)
trix_ema3 = ta.ema(trix_ema2, length_14)
trix = ta.roc(trix_ema3, 1) * 10000
// 15. Klinger Oscillator
klinger = ta.ema(volume * (high + low + close) / 3, 34) - ta.ema(volume * (high + low + close) / 3, 55)
// 16. Fisher Transform
fisher_hl2 = 0.5 * (hl2 - ta.lowest(hl2, 10)) / (ta.highest(hl2, 10) - ta.lowest(hl2, 10)) - 0.25
fisher = 0.5 * math.log((1 + fisher_hl2) / (1 - fisher_hl2))
// 17. Stochastic RSI
stoch_rsi = ta.stoch(rsi_14, rsi_14, rsi_14, length_14)
stoch_rsi_centered = stoch_rsi - 50
// 18. Relative Vigor Index (RVI)
rvi_num = ta.swma(close - open)
rvi_den = ta.swma(high - low)
rvi = rvi_den != 0 ? rvi_num / rvi_den : 0
// 19. Balance of Power (BOP)
bop = (close - open) / (high - low)
// |----- TREND INDICATORS (10 indicators) -----| //
// 20. Simple Moving Average Momentum
sma_20 = ta.sma(close, length_20)
sma_momentum = ((close - sma_20) / sma_20) * 100
// 21. Exponential Moving Average Momentum
ema_20 = ta.ema(close, length_20)
ema_momentum = ((close - ema_20) / ema_20) * 100
// 22. Parabolic SAR
sar = ta.sar(0.02, 0.02, 0.2)
sar_trend = close > sar ? 1 : -1
// 23. Linear Regression Slope
lr_slope = ta.linreg(close, length_20, 0) - ta.linreg(close, length_20, 1)
// 24. Moving Average Convergence (MAC)
mac = ta.sma(close, 10) - ta.sma(close, 30)
// 25. Trend Intensity Index (TII)
tii_sum = 0.0
for i = 1 to length_20
tii_sum += close > close ? 1 : 0
tii = (tii_sum / length_20) * 100
// 26. Ichimoku Cloud Components
ichimoku_tenkan = (ta.highest(high, 9) + ta.lowest(low, 9)) / 2
ichimoku_kijun = (ta.highest(high, 26) + ta.lowest(low, 26)) / 2
ichimoku_signal = ichimoku_tenkan > ichimoku_kijun ? 1 : -1
// 27. MESA Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA)
mama_alpha = 2.0 / (length_20 + 1)
mama = ta.ema(close, length_20)
mama_momentum = ((close - mama) / mama) * 100
// 28. Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLEMA)
zlema_lag = math.round((length_20 - 1) / 2)
zlema_data = close + (close - close )
zlema = ta.ema(zlema_data, length_20)
zlema_momentum = ((close - zlema) / zlema) * 100
// |----- VOLUME INDICATORS (6 indicators) -----| //
// 29. On-Balance Volume (OBV)
obv = ta.obv
// 30. Volume Rate of Change (VROC)
vroc = ta.roc(volume, length_14)
// 31. Price Volume Trend (PVT)
pvt = ta.pvt
// 32. Negative Volume Index (NVI)
nvi = 0.0
nvi := volume < volume ? nvi + ((close - close ) / close ) * nvi : nvi
// 33. Positive Volume Index (PVI)
pvi = 0.0
pvi := volume > volume ? pvi + ((close - close ) / close ) * pvi : pvi
// 34. Volume Oscillator
vol_osc = ta.sma(volume, 5) - ta.sma(volume, 10)
// 35. Ease of Movement (EOM)
eom_distance = high - low
eom_box_height = volume / 1000000
eom = eom_box_height != 0 ? eom_distance / eom_box_height : 0
eom_sma = ta.sma(eom, length_14)
// 36. Force Index
force_index = volume * (close - close )
force_index_sma = ta.sma(force_index, length_14)
// |----- VOLATILITY INDICATORS (10 indicators) -----| //
// 37. Average True Range (ATR)
atr = ta.atr(length_14)
atr_pct = (atr / close) * 100
// 38. Bollinger Bands Position
bb_basis = ta.sma(close, length_20)
bb_dev = 2.0 * ta.stdev(close, length_20)
bb_upper = bb_basis + bb_dev
bb_lower = bb_basis - bb_dev
bb_position = bb_dev != 0 ? (close - bb_basis) / bb_dev : 0
bb_width = bb_dev != 0 ? (bb_upper - bb_lower) / bb_basis * 100 : 0
// 39. Keltner Channels Position
kc_basis = ta.ema(close, length_20)
kc_range = ta.ema(ta.tr, length_20)
kc_upper = kc_basis + (2.0 * kc_range)
kc_lower = kc_basis - (2.0 * kc_range)
kc_position = kc_range != 0 ? (close - kc_basis) / kc_range : 0
// 40. Donchian Channels Position
dc_upper = ta.highest(high, length_20)
dc_lower = ta.lowest(low, length_20)
dc_basis = (dc_upper + dc_lower) / 2
dc_position = (dc_upper - dc_lower) != 0 ? (close - dc_basis) / (dc_upper - dc_lower) : 0
// 41. Standard Deviation
std_dev = ta.stdev(close, length_20)
std_dev_pct = (std_dev / close) * 100
// 42. Relative Volatility Index (RVI)
rvi_up = ta.stdev(close > close ? close : 0, length_14)
rvi_down = ta.stdev(close < close ? close : 0, length_14)
rvi_total = rvi_up + rvi_down
rvi_volatility = rvi_total != 0 ? (rvi_up / rvi_total) * 100 : 50
// 43. Historical Volatility
hv_returns = math.log(close / close )
hv = ta.stdev(hv_returns, length_20) * math.sqrt(252) * 100
// 44. Garman-Klass Volatility
gk_vol = math.log(high/low) * math.log(high/low) - (2*math.log(2)-1) * math.log(close/open) * math.log(close/open)
gk_volatility = math.sqrt(ta.sma(gk_vol, length_20)) * 100
// 45. Parkinson Volatility
park_vol = math.log(high/low) * math.log(high/low)
parkinson = math.sqrt(ta.sma(park_vol, length_20) / (4 * math.log(2))) * 100
// 46. Rogers-Satchell Volatility
rs_vol = math.log(high/close) * math.log(high/open) + math.log(low/close) * math.log(low/open)
rogers_satchell = math.sqrt(ta.sma(rs_vol, length_20)) * 100
// |----- OSCILLATOR INDICATORS (5 indicators) -----| //
// 47. Elder Ray Index
elder_bull = high - ta.ema(close, 13)
elder_bear = low - ta.ema(close, 13)
elder_power = elder_bull + elder_bear
// 48. Schaff Trend Cycle (STC)
stc_macd = ta.ema(close, 23) - ta.ema(close, 50)
stc_k = ta.stoch(stc_macd, stc_macd, stc_macd, 10)
stc_d = ta.ema(stc_k, 3)
stc = ta.stoch(stc_d, stc_d, stc_d, 10)
// 49. Coppock Curve
coppock_roc1 = ta.roc(close, 14)
coppock_roc2 = ta.roc(close, 11)
coppock = ta.wma(coppock_roc1 + coppock_roc2, 10)
// 50. Know Sure Thing (KST)
kst_roc1 = ta.roc(close, 10)
kst_roc2 = ta.roc(close, 15)
kst_roc3 = ta.roc(close, 20)
kst_roc4 = ta.roc(close, 30)
kst = ta.sma(kst_roc1, 10) + 2*ta.sma(kst_roc2, 10) + 3*ta.sma(kst_roc3, 10) + 4*ta.sma(kst_roc4, 15)
// 51. Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)
ppo_line = ((ta.ema(close, 12) - ta.ema(close, 26)) / ta.ema(close, 26)) * 100
ppo_signal = ta.ema(ppo_line, 9)
ppo_histogram = ppo_line - ppo_signal
// |----- PLOT MAIN INDICATORS -----| //
// Plot key momentum indicators
plot(rsi_centered, title="01_RSI_Centered", color=color.purple, linewidth=1)
plot(stoch_centered, title="02_Stoch_Centered", color=color.blue, linewidth=1)
plot(williams_r, title="03_Williams_R", color=color.red, linewidth=1)
plot(macd_histogram, title="04_MACD_Histogram", color=color.orange, linewidth=1)
plot(cci, title="05_CCI", color=color.green, linewidth=1)
// Plot trend indicators
plot(sma_momentum, title="06_SMA_Momentum", color=color.navy, linewidth=1)
plot(ema_momentum, title="07_EMA_Momentum", color=color.maroon, linewidth=1)
plot(sar_trend, title="08_SAR_Trend", color=color.teal, linewidth=1)
plot(lr_slope, title="09_LR_Slope", color=color.lime, linewidth=1)
plot(mac, title="10_MAC", color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=1)
// Plot volatility indicators
plot(atr_pct, title="11_ATR_Pct", color=color.yellow, linewidth=1)
plot(bb_position, title="12_BB_Position", color=color.aqua, linewidth=1)
plot(kc_position, title="13_KC_Position", color=color.olive, linewidth=1)
plot(std_dev_pct, title="14_StdDev_Pct", color=color.silver, linewidth=1)
plot(bb_width, title="15_BB_Width", color=color.gray, linewidth=1)
// Plot volume indicators
plot(vroc, title="16_VROC", color=color.blue, linewidth=1)
plot(eom_sma, title="17_EOM", color=color.red, linewidth=1)
plot(vol_osc, title="18_Vol_Osc", color=color.green, linewidth=1)
plot(force_index_sma, title="19_Force_Index", color=color.orange, linewidth=1)
plot(obv, title="20_OBV", color=color.purple, linewidth=1)
// Plot additional oscillators
plot(ao, title="21_Awesome_Osc", color=color.navy, linewidth=1)
plot(cmo, title="22_CMO", color=color.maroon, linewidth=1)
plot(dpo, title="23_DPO", color=color.teal, linewidth=1)
plot(trix, title="24_TRIX", color=color.lime, linewidth=1)
plot(fisher, title="25_Fisher", color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=1)
// Plot more momentum indicators
plot(mfi_centered, title="26_MFI_Centered", color=color.yellow, linewidth=1)
plot(ac, title="27_AC", color=color.aqua, linewidth=1)
plot(ppo_pct, title="28_PPO_Pct", color=color.olive, linewidth=1)
plot(stoch_rsi_centered, title="29_StochRSI_Centered", color=color.silver, linewidth=1)
plot(klinger, title="30_Klinger", color=color.gray, linewidth=1)
// Plot trend continuation
plot(tii, title="31_TII", color=color.blue, linewidth=1)
plot(ichimoku_signal, title="32_Ichimoku_Signal", color=color.red, linewidth=1)
plot(mama_momentum, title="33_MAMA_Momentum", color=color.green, linewidth=1)
plot(zlema_momentum, title="34_ZLEMA_Momentum", color=color.orange, linewidth=1)
plot(bop, title="35_BOP", color=color.purple, linewidth=1)
// Plot volume continuation
plot(nvi, title="36_NVI", color=color.navy, linewidth=1)
plot(pvi, title="37_PVI", color=color.maroon, linewidth=1)
plot(momentum_pct, title="38_Momentum_Pct", color=color.teal, linewidth=1)
plot(roc, title="39_ROC", color=color.lime, linewidth=1)
plot(rvi, title="40_RVI", color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=1)
// Plot volatility continuation
plot(dc_position, title="41_DC_Position", color=color.yellow, linewidth=1)
plot(rvi_volatility, title="42_RVI_Volatility", color=color.aqua, linewidth=1)
plot(hv, title="43_Historical_Vol", color=color.olive, linewidth=1)
plot(gk_volatility, title="44_GK_Volatility", color=color.silver, linewidth=1)
plot(parkinson, title="45_Parkinson_Vol", color=color.gray, linewidth=1)
// Plot final oscillators
plot(rogers_satchell, title="46_RS_Volatility", color=color.blue, linewidth=1)
plot(elder_power, title="47_Elder_Power", color=color.red, linewidth=1)
plot(stc, title="48_STC", color=color.green, linewidth=1)
plot(coppock, title="49_Coppock", color=color.orange, linewidth=1)
plot(kst, title="50_KST", color=color.purple, linewidth=1)
// Plot final indicators
plot(ppo_histogram, title="51_PPO_Histogram", color=color.navy, linewidth=1)
plot(pvt, title="52_PVT", color=color.maroon, linewidth=1)
// |----- Reference Lines -----| //
hline(0, "Zero Line", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dashed, linewidth=1)
hline(50, "Midline", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)
hline(-50, "Lower Midline", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)
hline(25, "Upper Threshold", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)
hline(-25, "Lower Threshold", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)
// |----- Enhanced Information Table -----| //
if show_table and barstate.islast
table_position = position.top_right
table_text_size = table_size == "Tiny" ? size.tiny : table_size == "Small" ? size.small : size.normal
var table info_table = table.new(table_position, 3, 18, bgcolor=color.new(color.white, 85), border_width=1, border_color=color.gray)
// Headers
table.cell(info_table, 0, 0, 'Category', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 70))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 0, 'Indicator', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 70))
table.cell(info_table, 2, 0, 'Value', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 70))
// Key Momentum Indicators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 1, 'MOMENTUM', text_color=color.purple, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.purple, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 1, 'RSI Centered', text_color=color.purple, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 1, str.tostring(rsi_centered, '0.00'), text_color=color.purple, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 2, '', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 2, 'Stoch Centered', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 2, str.tostring(stoch_centered, '0.00'), text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 3, '', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 3, 'Williams %R', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 3, str.tostring(williams_r, '0.00'), text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 4, '', text_color=color.orange, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 4, 'MACD Histogram', text_color=color.orange, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 4, str.tostring(macd_histogram, '0.000'), text_color=color.orange, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 5, '', text_color=color.green, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 5, 'CCI', text_color=color.green, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 5, str.tostring(cci, '0.00'), text_color=color.green, text_size=table_text_size)
// Key Trend Indicators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 6, 'TREND', text_color=color.navy, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.navy, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 6, 'SMA Momentum %', text_color=color.navy, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 6, str.tostring(sma_momentum, '0.00'), text_color=color.navy, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 7, '', text_color=color.maroon, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 7, 'EMA Momentum %', text_color=color.maroon, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 7, str.tostring(ema_momentum, '0.00'), text_color=color.maroon, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 8, '', text_color=color.teal, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 8, 'SAR Trend', text_color=color.teal, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 8, str.tostring(sar_trend, '0'), text_color=color.teal, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 9, '', text_color=color.lime, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 9, 'Linear Regression', text_color=color.lime, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 9, str.tostring(lr_slope, '0.000'), text_color=color.lime, text_size=table_text_size)
// Key Volatility Indicators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 10, 'VOLATILITY', text_color=color.yellow, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 10, 'ATR %', text_color=color.yellow, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 10, str.tostring(atr_pct, '0.00'), text_color=color.yellow, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 11, '', text_color=color.aqua, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 11, 'BB Position', text_color=color.aqua, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 11, str.tostring(bb_position, '0.00'), text_color=color.aqua, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 12, '', text_color=color.olive, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 12, 'KC Position', text_color=color.olive, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 12, str.tostring(kc_position, '0.00'), text_color=color.olive, text_size=table_text_size)
// Key Volume Indicators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 13, 'VOLUME', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 13, 'Volume ROC', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 13, str.tostring(vroc, '0.00'), text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 14, '', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 14, 'EOM', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 14, str.tostring(eom_sma, '0.000'), text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
// Key Oscillators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 15, 'OSCILLATORS', text_color=color.purple, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.purple, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 15, 'Awesome Osc', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 15, str.tostring(ao, '0.000'), text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 16, '', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 16, 'Fisher Transform', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 16, str.tostring(fisher, '0.000'), text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
// Summary Statistics
table.cell(info_table, 0, 17, 'SUMMARY', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 70))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 17, 'Total Indicators: 52', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size)
regime_color = rsi_centered > 10 ? color.green : rsi_centered < -10 ? color.red : color.gray
regime_text = rsi_centered > 10 ? "BULLISH" : rsi_centered < -10 ? "BEARISH" : "NEUTRAL"
table.cell(info_table, 2, 17, regime_text, text_color=regime_color, text_size=table_text_size)
This makes it the perfect “indicator backbone” for quantitative and systematic traders who want to prototype, combine, and test new regime detection models—especially in combination with the Markov Chain indicator.
How to use this script with the Markov Chain for research and backtesting:
Add the Enhanced Indicator Export to your chart.
Every calculated indicator is available as an individual data stream.
Connect the indicator(s) you want as custom input(s) to the Markov Chain’s “Custom Indicators” option.
In the Markov Chain indicator’s settings, turn ON the custom indicator mode.
For each of the three custom indicator inputs, select the exported plot from the Enhanced Export script—the menu lists all 45+ signals by name.
This creates a powerful, modular regime-detection engine where you can mix-and-match momentum, trend, volume, or custom combinations for advanced filtering.
Backtest regime logic directly.
Once you’ve connected your chosen indicators, the Markov Chain script performs regime detection (Bull/Neutral/Bear) based on your selected features—not just price returns.
The regime detection is robust, automatically normalized (using Z-score), and outputs bias (1, -1, 0) for plug-and-play integration.
Export the regime bias for programmatic use.
As described above, use input.source() in your Pine Script strategy or system and link the bias output.
You can now filter signals, control trade direction/size, or design pairs-trading that respect true, indicator-driven market regimes.
With this framework, you’re not limited to static or simplistic regime filters. You can rigorously define, test, and refine what “market regime” means for your strategies—using the technical features that matter most to you.
Optimize your signal generation by backtesting across a universe of meaningful indicator blends.
Enhance risk management with objective, real-time regime boundaries.
Accelerate your research: iterate quickly, swap indicator components, and see results with minimal code changes.
Automate multi-asset or pairs-trading by integrating regime context directly into strategy logic.
Add both scripts to your chart, connect your preferred features, and start investigating your best regime-based trades—entirely within the TradingView ecosystem.
References & Further Reading
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2002). “Regime Switches in Interest Rates.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(2), 163–182.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle.” Econometrica, 57(2), 357–384.
Markov, A. A. (1906). "Extension of the Limit Theorems of Probability Theory to a Sum of Variables Connected in a Chain." The Notes of the Imperial Academy of Sciences of St. Petersburg.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). “Asset Allocation under Multivariate Regime Switching.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503–3544.
Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. New York Institute of Finance.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). “Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731–1764.
Zucchini, W., MacDonald, I. L., & Langrock, R. (2017). Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R (2nd ed.). Chapman and Hall/CRC.
On Quantitative Finance and Markov Models:
Lo, A. W., & Hasanhodzic, J. (2009). The Heretics of Finance: Conversations with Leading Practitioners of Technical Analysis. Bloomberg Press.
Patterson, S. (2016). The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution. Penguin Press.
TradingView Pine Script Documentation: www.tradingview.com
TradingView Blog: “Use an Input From Another Indicator With Your Strategy” www.tradingview.com
GeeksforGeeks: “What is the Difference Between Markov Chains and Hidden Markov Models?” www.geeksforgeeks.org
What makes this indicator original and unique?
- On‑chart, real‑time Markov. The chain is drawn directly on your chart. You see the current regime, its tendency to stay (self‑loop), and the usual next step (arrows) as bars confirm.
- Source‑agnostic by design. The engine runs on any series you select via input.source() — price, your own oscillator, a composite score, anything you compute in the script.
- Automatic normalization + regime mapping. Different inputs live on different scales. The script standardizes your chosen source and maps it into clear regimes (e.g., Bull / Bear / Neutral) without you micromanaging thresholds each time.
- Rolling, bar‑by‑bar learning. Transition tendencies are computed from a rolling window of confirmed bars. What you see is exactly what the market did in that window.
- Fast experimentation. Switch the source, adjust the window, and the Markov view updates instantly. It’s a rapid way to test ideas and feel regime persistence/switch behavior.
Integrate your own signals (using input.source())
- In settings, choose the Source . This is powered by input.source() .
- Feed it price, an indicator you compute inside the script, or a custom composite series.
- The script will automatically normalize that series and process it through the Markov engine, mapping it to regimes and updating the on‑chart spheres/arrows in real time.
Credits:
Deep gratitude to @RicardoSantos for both the foundational Markov chain processing engine and inspiring open-source contributions, which made advanced probabilistic market modeling accessible to the TradingView community.
Special thanks to @Alien_Algorithms for the innovative and visually stunning 3D sphere logic that powers the indicator’s animated, regime-based visualization.
Disclaimer
This tool summarizes recent behavior. It is not financial advice and not a guarantee of future results.
